Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human–animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall
Identifieur interne : 000959 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000958; suivant : 000960Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human–animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall
Auteurs : Huaiyu Tian [République populaire de Chine] ; Pengbo Yu [République populaire de Chine] ; Bernard Cazelles [France] ; Lei Xu [République populaire de Chine, Norvège] ; Hua Tan ; Jing Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Shanqian Huang [République populaire de Chine] ; Bo Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Jun Cai [République populaire de Chine] ; Chaofeng Ma [République populaire de Chine] ; Jing Wei [République populaire de Chine] ; Shen Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Jianhui Qu [République populaire de Chine] ; Marko Laine [Finlande] ; Jingjun Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Shilu Tong [République populaire de Chine, Australie] ; Nils Chr. Stenseth [Norvège] ; Bing Xu [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 0027-8424 ] ; 2017.
Abstract
Interannual cycles of many zoonotic diseases are considered to be driven by climate variability. However, the role of climate forcing in the modulation of zoonotic dynamics has been highly controversial, chiefly due to the difficulty in quantifying the links between climate forcing, animal population dynamics, and disease dynamics. Here, we address this issue by using a unique field surveillance dataset from Central China, covering one-half century. Our results shed light on the drivers behind interannual variability and the dynamic patterns of disease ecology, and the links between interannual climate variability and the human–animal interface, adding up to 3-mo lead time over outbreak warnings.
Url:
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701777114
PubMed: 28696305
PubMed Central: 5544290
Affiliations:
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country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Jingjun" sort="Wang, Jingjun" uniqKey="Wang J" first="Jingjun" last="Wang">Jingjun Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tong, Shilu" sort="Tong, Shilu" uniqKey="Tong S" first="Shilu" last="Tong">Shilu Tong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">Shanghai Children’s Medical Center,<institution>Shanghai Jiao Tong University</institution>, Shanghai 200127,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation 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the human–animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall</title><author><name sortKey="Tian, Huaiyu" sort="Tian, Huaiyu" uniqKey="Tian H" first="Huaiyu" last="Tian">Huaiyu Tian</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Pengbo" sort="Yu, Pengbo" uniqKey="Yu P" first="Pengbo" last="Yu">Pengbo Yu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cazelles, Bernard" sort="Cazelles, Bernard" uniqKey="Cazelles B" first="Bernard" last="Cazelles">Bernard Cazelles</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Institut de Biologie de l'École Normale Supérieure UMR 8197, Eco-Evolutionary Mathematics, École Normale Supérieure, 75230 Paris Cedex 05, France;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut de Biologie de l'École Normale Supérieure UMR 8197, Eco-Evolutionary Mathematics, École Normale Supérieure, 75230 Paris Cedex 05</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Unité Mixte Internationnale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 93142 Bondy, France;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Unité Mixte Internationnale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 93142 Bondy</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Bondy</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Lei" sort="Xu, Lei" uniqKey="Xu L" first="Lei" last="Xu">Lei Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,<institution>Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Beijing 102206,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences,<institution>University of Oslo</institution>, N-0316 Oslo,<country>Norway</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Norvège</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tan, Hua" sort="Tan, Hua" uniqKey="Tan H" first="Hua" last="Tan">Hua Tan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Center for Bioinformatics and Systems Biology, Department of Radiology,<institution>Wake Forest School of Medicine</institution>, Winston-Salem,<addr-line>NC</addr-line> 27157;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Jing" sort="Yang, Jing" uniqKey="Yang J" first="Jing" last="Yang">Jing Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Huang, Shanqian" sort="Huang, Shanqian" uniqKey="Huang S" first="Shanqian" last="Huang">Shanqian Huang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Bo" sort="Xu, Bo" uniqKey="Xu B" first="Bo" last="Xu">Bo Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8">Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science,<institution>Tsinghua University</institution>, Beijing 100084,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cai, Jun" sort="Cai, Jun" uniqKey="Cai J" first="Jun" last="Cai">Jun Cai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8">Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science,<institution>Tsinghua University</institution>, Beijing 100084,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ma, Chaofeng" sort="Ma, Chaofeng" uniqKey="Ma C" first="Chaofeng" last="Ma">Chaofeng Ma</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff9"><institution>Xi’an Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wei, Jing" sort="Wei, Jing" uniqKey="Wei J" first="Jing" last="Wei">Jing Wei</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Shen" sort="Li, Shen" uniqKey="Li S" first="Shen" last="Li">Shen Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Qu, Jianhui" sort="Qu, Jianhui" uniqKey="Qu J" first="Jianhui" last="Qu">Jianhui Qu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff10"><institution>Hu County Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710302,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Laine, Marko" sort="Laine, Marko" uniqKey="Laine M" first="Marko" last="Laine">Marko Laine</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Finnish Meteorological Institute</institution>, Helsinki FI-00101,<country>Finland</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Finlande</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Jingjun" sort="Wang, Jingjun" uniqKey="Wang J" first="Jingjun" last="Wang">Jingjun Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tong, Shilu" sort="Tong, Shilu" uniqKey="Tong S" first="Shilu" last="Tong">Shilu Tong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">Shanghai Children’s Medical Center,<institution>Shanghai Jiao Tong University</institution>, Shanghai 200127,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff13">School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Population Health,<institution>Anhui Medical University</institution>, Hefei 230032,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff14">School of Public Health and Social Work,<institution>Queensland University of Technology</institution>, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stenseth, Nils Chr" sort="Stenseth, Nils Chr" uniqKey="Stenseth N" first="Nils Chr." last="Stenseth">Nils Chr. Stenseth</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences,<institution>University of Oslo</institution>, N-0316 Oslo,<country>Norway</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Norvège</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Bing" sort="Xu, Bing" uniqKey="Xu B" first="Bing" last="Xu">Bing Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8">Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science,<institution>Tsinghua University</institution>, Beijing 100084,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2017">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Significance</title><p>Interannual cycles of many zoonotic diseases are considered to be driven by climate variability. However, the role of climate forcing in the modulation of zoonotic dynamics has been highly controversial, chiefly due to the difficulty in quantifying the links between climate forcing, animal population dynamics, and disease dynamics. Here, we address this issue by using a unique field surveillance dataset from Central China, covering one-half century. Our results shed light on the drivers behind interannual variability and the dynamic patterns of disease ecology, and the links between interannual climate variability and the human–animal interface, adding up to 3-mo lead time over outbreak warnings.</p></div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>Finlande</li><li>France</li><li>Norvège</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country><region><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Bondy</li><li>Paris</li></settlement></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Tan, Hua" sort="Tan, Hua" uniqKey="Tan H" first="Hua" last="Tan">Hua Tan</name></noCountry><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Tian, Huaiyu" sort="Tian, Huaiyu" uniqKey="Tian H" first="Huaiyu" last="Tian">Huaiyu Tian</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Cai, Jun" sort="Cai, Jun" uniqKey="Cai J" first="Jun" last="Cai">Jun Cai</name><name sortKey="Huang, Shanqian" sort="Huang, Shanqian" uniqKey="Huang S" first="Shanqian" last="Huang">Shanqian Huang</name><name sortKey="Li, Shen" sort="Li, Shen" uniqKey="Li S" first="Shen" last="Li">Shen Li</name><name sortKey="Ma, Chaofeng" sort="Ma, Chaofeng" uniqKey="Ma C" first="Chaofeng" last="Ma">Chaofeng Ma</name><name sortKey="Qu, Jianhui" sort="Qu, Jianhui" uniqKey="Qu J" first="Jianhui" last="Qu">Jianhui Qu</name><name sortKey="Tong, Shilu" sort="Tong, Shilu" uniqKey="Tong S" first="Shilu" last="Tong">Shilu Tong</name><name sortKey="Tong, Shilu" sort="Tong, Shilu" uniqKey="Tong S" first="Shilu" last="Tong">Shilu Tong</name><name sortKey="Wang, Jingjun" sort="Wang, Jingjun" uniqKey="Wang J" first="Jingjun" last="Wang">Jingjun Wang</name><name sortKey="Wei, Jing" sort="Wei, Jing" uniqKey="Wei J" first="Jing" last="Wei">Jing Wei</name><name sortKey="Xu, Bing" sort="Xu, Bing" uniqKey="Xu B" first="Bing" last="Xu">Bing Xu</name><name sortKey="Xu, Bing" sort="Xu, Bing" uniqKey="Xu B" first="Bing" last="Xu">Bing Xu</name><name sortKey="Xu, Bo" sort="Xu, Bo" uniqKey="Xu B" first="Bo" last="Xu">Bo Xu</name><name sortKey="Xu, Lei" sort="Xu, Lei" uniqKey="Xu L" first="Lei" last="Xu">Lei Xu</name><name sortKey="Yang, Jing" sort="Yang, Jing" uniqKey="Yang J" first="Jing" last="Yang">Jing Yang</name><name sortKey="Yu, Pengbo" sort="Yu, Pengbo" uniqKey="Yu P" first="Pengbo" last="Yu">Pengbo Yu</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Cazelles, Bernard" sort="Cazelles, Bernard" uniqKey="Cazelles B" first="Bernard" last="Cazelles">Bernard Cazelles</name></region><name sortKey="Cazelles, Bernard" sort="Cazelles, Bernard" uniqKey="Cazelles B" first="Bernard" last="Cazelles">Bernard Cazelles</name></country><country name="Norvège"><noRegion><name sortKey="Xu, Lei" sort="Xu, Lei" uniqKey="Xu L" first="Lei" last="Xu">Lei Xu</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Stenseth, Nils Chr" sort="Stenseth, Nils Chr" uniqKey="Stenseth N" first="Nils Chr." last="Stenseth">Nils Chr. Stenseth</name></country><country name="Finlande"><noRegion><name sortKey="Laine, Marko" sort="Laine, Marko" uniqKey="Laine M" first="Marko" last="Laine">Marko Laine</name></noRegion></country><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Tong, Shilu" sort="Tong, Shilu" uniqKey="Tong S" first="Shilu" last="Tong">Shilu Tong</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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